thinking about forming a new blog.. for all trades.. stocks, futures, currency..

any thoughts?

Markets have been brutal of late, but to revive this blog i’ll start posting trending models that i’ve created.  Hopefully this helps us take the emotion out of these wild markets.

 Feel free to comment if this helps or not.

The chart below is of S&P Futures.  The red bars defines a downtrend, while grey is neutral, and green bars would be a bullish trend.  The chart is created based on technicals and I use this along with a few economic models to create a bias.  SPX is approaching resitance again, but based recent FOMC actions we may retest the 50ems (blue line) before resuming a the downtrend.  Overall, I expecect more violent action in a range bound market for 2008 before we base out and take out old highs in a few years.  This would be the cup and handle pattern I expected when SPX was doing a double top at 1550.

Similarly, this works with stocks where i scan stocks with improving fundamentals and emerging bullish trends.  Stocks like POT (Potash turned into enormous trend longs).  Of course not all scans turn into POT, but this helps with timing (buying too late, or selling too early).  Going forward I will post stocks that could be the next POT based on fundamental and technicals scans.

Closing puts today for +$25k and long futures ..also starting a small short position in crude for a trade.

The only way to get to $1 million now is to bet big when i think i got the analysis and timing correct.  With the recent breakout in Gold and the continued dollar weakness, trading calls in select stocks has been very profitable.  Last week i entered calls in GG (GoldCorp Inc) based on the breakout of spot prices and technical breakout on GG chart.  Going forward I’ll continue to look at this sector (metals) and wait for a opportune pull back to buy more calls on different names.

With recent trade, i’m now back near $300k.

After hitting a rough patch in June and a mini vacation I’m back to seeking my personal million dollar challenge.  I missed a few leverage bets and took a hit with my account, but last few weeks have saved me with a few call positions.  In June I had the analysis correct, but the timing was off.   As I alway say for options, the right timing + correct analysis = a winning trade.  This is why I always use a combination of fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment when taking a position.

Overall, I still remain bullish on markets and believe that a strong earnings report this week could give us a nice trading market for rest of year.  Many market ”TOP” callers could capitulate and will give up and we could just end up seeing a safe market for stock picking.  I will be also looking for markets to stall and possibly retrace Dow at 14k and 1560-70 for the S&P 500.

I continue to favor techs and I am now looking for Gold/metals to continue their recent bullish breakout.  But as long as trends remain bullish, I will continue to look for more breakouts to the upside in a variety of sectors, and lighten up at resistance levels.

Overall portfolio is still up 758% for year, but I’m starting to cringe when looking at my commisions mount up.

I am trading 2 accounts and the other is doing great this year also, but I’ll be only blogging the performance for the first.

2nd account:

After a huge run up this year, I’m now looking to scalp the short side with puts.

Since we’re entering long weekend I expect some profit taking ahead of it.    With rising gasoline/oil prices I expect it to hit the headlines and possible cause some fear.  I’ll be looking to be hedged and net short this week while selling into strength.

Trading in the last few months has aged me quickly and I need a 2 week break.  We still have plenty of time to make the $1mil so I rather wait patiently for great setups.

Less then 5 Months. $30k starting, +333,408, +1,111.36%

It’s been a while since I woke up in the middle of the night to see the China markets down over 6%.  I have to admit it looks like a bubble.  Over 200,000 new brokerage accounts are open daily in China and the Shanghai CompositeIndex continues to make new highs in the face of what seems to be irrational exhuberance.  College students are opening $400 accounts in hopes riding the wave.  The facts are global markets still remain liquid and US markets are in bull mode with strength overseas.

Markets continue to push higher and so does my account.  I still need to break $500k by June and we could be on track for $1m by year’s end.  I’m still searching for a homerun play (100% or more gainer) and I could have few call plays into expiry this week.  After Thursday’s crack and Friday’s pop on a dovish PPI report, there’s a good chance that we will see more of a squeeze higher into options expiry Friday.  Tuesday’s CPI# could set the trend which will confirm the trends this week.  89% of S&P 500 companies have reported and have outperformed estimates by over 3%.  67% have been above, 21% below, and 12% in line.  Strong fundamentals and tame inflation numbers will continue to set the bullish tone for markets. 

Trading large size positions are getting more difficult, but I believe when you’re right on direction it obviously helps.  For me personally, the best way to find winning trades in a bull market is to use a stock screen.  I personally use a fundamental screen to find stocks that will find bids as markets turn up.  Then I use technical analysis to time them as far as entries and exits.  A few good free online screening tools are MSN Stock Screener and Yahoo Stock Screener.  A few of my homerun picks could be BA, GOOG, BIDU, MCHP, NYX, ADBE. 

The bottom line is you have to understand both and learn to use them together. 

Less then 5 Months. $30k starting, +291,838, +973%

The Dow closed above 13,000 for the first time last week while the S&P 500 remains in striking distance to its all time high at 1552 and Nasdaq major trends seems to just getting started to the upside.

Recent economic reports suggest that US economic growth remains slow but US stocks remain resiliant by benefiting from overseas growth.  Earnings and private equity deals continue to keep bulls in the drivers seat.  Better-than-expected results has spurred analysts to boost estimates for first-quarter earnings growth to 9.4 percent from 3.1 percent two weeks ago. About $769 billion in U.S. takeovers have been announced so far this year, 51 percent more than at the same time last year.

Sell in May and go away?
History suggests we could be in for some profit taking in May, however, if US economic numbers suggest 2nd half growth with tame inflation, then we could see a nice summer rally.
quick facts:
- A $10,000 investment compounded to $544,323 for November-April in 56 years compared to $272 loss for May-October.
- Between 1985 and 1007 May was the best month with 13 straight gains, gaining 3.3% per year on average.
- Pre-Election Year Mays much better for NASDAQ and Russell 2000

A look at the charts gives us guidance of where we could be headed:

Not much change in trading account..   I might have to wait patiently for a better setup for a couple of weeks.

There’s a lot to learn from watching CNBC’s nightly show Fast Money. If you learn to think like Eric Bolling, you may be able to earn enough for a Maybach also!  The facts are that great traders like these guys work extremely hard and are always analyzing the markets.  They’re either doing their own analysis, creating a great network to exchange ideas, or out and about doing field research.  Investing and making fast money does not come easy.   Since I started my blog, I get questioned of the short term success. To be honest, I know I’m still a small fish in a very big pond, but I know I’m prepared for this on going process.  It’s taken time…lot’s of reading, researching, and continuous learning, but I do it because I have a passion for investing and let’s be honest… a love for MONEY!

Here’s a good interview this week with Jeff Macke on The Mind of a Trader:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=257488423

Anyhow, if I get this account to a million, in honor of Eric Bolling, I’ll post my pic here…. with me sitting in my new Maybach(although I prefer a McLaren), with shinny cuff-links on my Thomas Pink shirt, and smiling with my Pearly Whites!

My recent market analysis were spot on. All my calls rose right into expiry.  For those that are new, I recommend reading my first blog to now.  After posting In the Eye of the Storm on March 2nd, buying the dips has been the play.  I expect bulls to remain in force and most likely continue until S&P 500 takes out the all time high at 1552.87.  The key is to find the right sectors and the right stocks within them.  But most importantly for options… the right analysis at the right time!

4 Months and account is on track +$232,711,  +776% … strictly options!

Here’s an example of a recent position based on fundamentals and charts (i.e. technical analysis).

I took the trade for May 40 calls on CAL (Continental Airlines, Inc.) on Feb 30th @ $1.35.  Based on my analysis I figured there was a short term top on oil at 66 and with airlines hammered there was a great probability for a bounce.  Transports tested their recent breakout and were also poised for a bounce off support.  All signals were aligned to the upside.

My analysis was that I could enter CAL calls right off the 200ema for a bounce to 40+. 

A few days after the purchase, on April 2rd CAL released March traffic figures pointing to a better first quarter than it previously suggested.  This trade was money!  The shares surged 9.2% to $39.35.  I knew this had room to run so I held a few days longer until it tested resistance levels.  At that point I secured profits on the calls @ 2.85 for 111%.

This is just a brief example of a typical trade I look for.  Trading directional options strategies require a quick and timely thought process.  I always say timing is everything, but you also need to be ready to make the right decision at the right time!

Account is slightly up.. but not worth posting yet.  However, I loaded calls on last weeks dip and I expect new highs into expiry.